Nifty and Banks at Resistance

Hi all,

There is an important development for all of you to know that the index Nifty has a resistance at 5116. There is also a support which is currently valued at 5029. The next resistance comes at 5318.

Almost all the bank stocks are very close to or at resistance which is a matter of concern. So, if on 16th October the market remains choppy or corrects, it could purely be on the back of Banking Sector (as the sector had been running quiet hard and cheering the market).

For the moment, one can consider buying Guj NRE Coke for a price target of Rs81. The stop loss would be placed at Rs59.

One can continue holding HindZinc for a target of Rs900, Jindal Steel and Power for a target of Rs746, JSW Steel for a target of Rs1080 and Rs1120. Even Rajesh Exports whose cmp is Rs81 (given a target of Rs80) may go to Rs88.


Let's see what the market does tomorrow.


Happy & Profitable Trading.

Calls

Hi all,

First of all, my personal view on Nifty is that we are headed north ways and possibly have a long way to go in shortest time. So, tighten your seat belts and trade in the direction of trend.

Target Stop Loss

Buy Bank of Baroda 567 486
Buy Bharat Forge 313,352 270
Buy BHEL 2591 2420
Buy Honeywell Auto 2036 1770
Buy Jindal Steel & Power 714 622
LIC Housing Finance 864 768
NTPC 242 205
Sterlite Tech 315 268

Note:-
1) Honeywell Auto may consolidate before going up, a kind of throwback.
2) Jindal Steel and Power, LIC Housing Finance and Sterlite Optical are based on my trading plan, which is ideally for aggressive investors only.
3) On the basis of similar set up, SREI Int. has a target of 86.30. Due to lack of data on the stock, cannot tell the stop loss and therefore not recommended to buy.
4) Similarly, Cairn India has a target of Rs301, but due to lack of data, Stop loss cannot be given and so I did not recommend buying.
5) All above information is based on technical analysis.
6) This content is not an offer to buy. It is purely for the purpose of sharing information.

Consider the following

Hi all,

Buy Bank of India for a price target of Rs447/- with a stop loss of Rs391/-.

Buy MRF for a target of Rs6300/-, SL 5550/-

Buy Reliance Capital for a target of Rs1188 with a stop loss of Rs880/-


The next two buys are based on my trading set up, which is for highly adventurous and aggressive traders only.

Buy Orbit Corp. for a target of Rs272 with a stop loss at 238/-.

Buy Rajesh Exports for a target of Rs80/- with a stop loss of Rs63/-.

Aban, Market and US dollar

Hi all,


I am sorry to update this blog very often.

But very soon I will keep updating it on regular basis.

For the moment, one can buy Aban Offshore for a price target of Rs1985 and above and the stop loss would be 1555.

I reiterate buying HDIL with a stop loss at Rs316/- for a price target of Rs375/-.

Markets are expected to be range bound. However, I do not see any major corrections on the way.

New update on US dollar against Indian Rupee. The dollar is expected to go down further to Rs43/-.

Hold Nifty Longs. Sell Suzlon Energy

Hi all,


Nifty closed at 4986.55 today. The last day's fall and today's recovery was very much visible on charts. Supports on Nifty come at around 4968 and 4829 while the immediate resistance is at 5020.

Suzlon Energy
The stock has been under performing the market for quiet sometime now. The target is Rs78/- and then Rs71/- on the stock. It is not only for those who hold long position but those who do not have any position can go forward and short sell the stock with a stop loss at Rs95/- and target of Rs78/-.

Bank of Baroda
The stock can be bought at CMP (476.65) for a target of Rs492/- and a stop loss below Rs463/-. Since the risk to reward ratio is not too good, the stock should not be bought by risk averters.

Except for HDIL, almost all stocks have met their target. Hold long positions in HDIL with SL Rs316/-.


Disclaimer:-
1) Predictions of movement of Stocks are purely based on thorough technical analysis by the writer.
2) Writer bears no responsibility for any decisions made by any individual or firm based on analysis given in this page.
3) Writer shall not be liable for any damages or gains incurred due to recommendations presented on this blog.


Thanks
Neeraj Sehtya

Hold Nifty Longs, Buy HDIL and Amtek Auto

Hi all,


I am sorry for such a big hiatus but I was waiting for a few things to crack and get cleared which I have been able to do successfully.

In the meanwhile, I realised that all the targets barring DLF have been hit. Even in case of DLF, the stop loss has not been hit yet and the first of the two targets was successfully triggered.

But what further,
Nifty had given the breakout from 4730 and soon after that the target on nifty is 5250. So, be a fearless bull and hold on to nifty longs with a stop loss below 4926 on closing basis. This is however, not the right time to buy any nifty option. The same is suggested by the F&O data too that the markets are likely to hit 5000 this month's expiry.

One can consider buying HDIL for a price target of Rs375/- and stop loss of Rs317/-.
Current price is Rs332.45/- on NSE.

One can also buy Amtek Auto for a price target of Rs226/-, stop loss below Rs194/-. The risk to reward ratio is comparatively poor in this stock. Current price is Rs210.80/- on NSE.


Have a profitable trading.

Thanks

A Much Awaited Breakout Has Come Finally

Hello All!!

I had been saying to so many people around me that the breakout is expected to come on Monday or maximum by Tuesday of 2nd week of September (those who heard would agree with this statement) and it happened on Monday.

Now what to do??

As of today, we have breakouts both on the daily and the weekly chart of the Nifty. So, one can go long on the nifty itself.

All the recommended stocks are on the right track.


Stocks to buy

Satyam Comp:- The stock can be bought with a target of Rs135/-. Stop Loss would be Rs116/-.

Purvankara Project:- The stock can be bought with a target of Rs142/-.


Avoid stocks like Amtek Auto as they may see a phase of consolidation or a bit of correction.


Thanks
Neeraj Sehtya

Most stocks find key resistance, nifty finds support

Hello all!!


As mentioned in the last day's post, the bourses closed with a negative bias. While Sensex closed at 15666 losing 255 points, nifty closed at 4662 losing 70 points.

The nifty has closed very close to its vital support of 4658, which might give a push to the nifty or at least may not let it fall as hard as yesterday. At the same time, there are many stocks which are currently quoting at their resistance levels.
All I am waiting for is a decisive break above 4739 on any day on nifty.

At the same time, Sensex's support is seen in the zone of 15470-15370.

Almost all the stocks discussed yesterday are approaching their targets. Rest will soon follow the suit.

Aban offshore (targets of Rs1418/- and Rs1632/- were given in earlier posts) quotes a price of Rs1630/-. Now, there are factors that suggest a consolidation to correction mode on Aban Offshore. As said yesterday, any dip in the stock is a wonderful opportunity to buy. Its current resistance is Rs1632/-.

Bhel - A decisive breakout above Rs2351 is awaited, which will generate a buy signal with a target of Rs2741/-. (breakout can come anytime in the next 7 days.)

Carry a positive outlook on Bajaj Auto Ltd. and Hero Honda.
The former positioned at Rs1215/- is not too far from its minor resistance of Rs1224/-, while in the case of latter, a breakout above Rs1533/- is awaited to trigger a buy signal again. Rs1476/- is the support for Hero Honda.


Disclaimer:-
1) Predictions of movement of Stocks are purely based on thorough technical analysis by the writer.
2) Writer bears no responsibility for any decisions made by any individual or firm based on analysis given in this page.
3) Writer shall not be liable for any damages or gains incurred due to recommendations presented on this blog.

Nifty 6500 by April'2010

Hello all!!

A much awaited breakout happened on nifty this week. I was personally waiting for a decisive breakout above 4612 and 4658 on weekly basis and it finally happened. Unfortunately, it hasn't crossed the resistance of 4730 on daily basis with great conviction, neither by way of volumes nor substantial points gap. So, we might see intra week volatility.

Well, BSE Sensex had earlier given the same formation and it was awaited on Nifty. By virtue of the same formation, now Nifty's target is 6505 and Sensex's target is 22,300 and this target is expected to be attained by the end of April,2010.

Stock specific action:-

Aban Offshore - The stock is currently trading at Rs1571.30 Any correction in the stock is a very good buying opportunity. Rs1418 is the first support while 1633 the target.

DLF - Current price is Rs413.15. With a stop loss of Rs399/-, the stock can be bought for a target of Rs455/-. Coincidentally, Rs458 is a resistance.

Binani Cement - Stock is currently trading at Rs65.10/-. People with a horizon of 5-6 months can buy this stock for a target of Rs95/-.

Educomp - Stock is currently quoting a price of Rs4207.75/-. Decisive cross above Rs4288/- would be a great trigger for the stock and will generate a fresh buying opportunity.

Punj LLoyd - The stock's current price is Rs272.40/-. The stock can be bought with a target of Rs284/- while the stop loss would be Rs263/-.

Unitech - The stock is currently trading at Rs99.10/-. The stock can be bought with a stop loss of Rs94/-, while the target is Rs108/-, which I believe would get broken easily. After Rs108/-, stock might face resistance at Rs130/-.

There is a breakout awaited on Hero Honda, GMR Infra.
I am still cautious on mid-cap technology stocks.


Disclaimer:-
1) Predictions of movement of Stocks are purely based on thorough technical analysis by the writer.
2) Writer bears no responsibility for any decisions made by any individual or firm based on analysis given in this page.
3) Writer shall not be liable for any damages or gains incurred due to recommendations presented on this blog.

Challenge to hold Monday gains

Hello all!!

I am back again with head high as I would first like to mention the targets that I have been able to achieve.

I had suggested a target of Rs137/- on GMR Infra and that target has been hit by the stock. Now the stock is quoting at its key resistance of Rs137.35/- accurately and some profit booking is expected to come in. This profit booking might leave the stock in the price range of Rs128.75-137.35

Next stock that I had referred to was LITL. The stock has achieved its target of Rs415/- as it closed at Rs425/-.

The stock BHEL still remains in its range as was mentioned Rs1958 – Rs2351. The stock may not fall back to the levels of Rs1958 again but it might see amount of profit booking at current levels and the stock may shed some value.

In the blog posted yesterday, it was mentioned that the market is expected to go up and gain momentum which is what happened today.

In the blog posted on Thursday, it was mentioned that Hero Honda might bounce back to the levels of Rs1400/- and then it was also said that the stock will gain further momentum after crossing Rs1420/- and the result is in front of all of us. The stock is today quoting at Rs1527/- and the stock has gained approximately Rs150 in the last 3days.

Apollo tyres and Binani cement are still in the frame. They have not given a breakout yet which is awaited. Apollo tyres can give a breakout any day.

But as always, what is gone is history, let us resolve the mystery of what next!!

Nifty is currently at 4642. While important levels to watch out for as of today are 4641 and 4655 and therefore, nifty is at the level, where selling pressure could be seen.

Stocks like Aban and Bharat Forge have given a buy signal, but the risk to reward ratio is unfavourable to take a trade and with the market risk hovering it becomes a risky trade to initiate.

Aban is currently trading at Rs1216.15 and can be bought with a target of Rs1418/- and then Rs1632/- and a stop loss of Rs1174/-. However, Rs1242 remains a good number to watch out for.

Similarly, Bharat Forge has triggered a buy call, but the risk to reward ratio is a way too high. With a target of Rs243 and stop loss of Rs223, Bharat Forge (currently quoting at Rs230/-) can be bought. This information should ideally be used by high risk traders.

Almost all the stocks are quoting at their key resistance levels. Stocks like Suzlon, which are not out of the bear phase yet, is at its important resistance of Rs88.65/-. The stock itself quoting at Rs88.15/- may lose ground and bleed as the market risk will influence its movement.

Educomp Solutions
The stock is quoting at Rs3896/- while the stock price is in the range of Rs3730/- to Rs3938/-. So, wait for the range to break on either side. Positive breakout is expected which might take some time

Apollo tyres has not given a breakout yet.

Punjlloyd is yet another stock quoting at an important resistance level. And a bout of selling might come in, which might take the stock back to the levels of Rs244/- or so.

So, wait to see how the market reacts. My personal sense is that the market might be a bit volatile, with a slightly negative bias. In case, the market and stocks are able to take out these resistance levels, nothing like that.


Disclaimer
1) I personally do not trade in the stock market.
2) Any trade taken on the basis of the information provided above does not hold the writer liable for it. Any decision to take a trade based on the above information is at the discretion of the respected reader.

markets after friday

As stated on Thursday, the sensex needs to close above 15180 and closer to 15242 to keep up the buoyancy; the markets did close near 15242 at 15240.83. In simple words it just means that we are still on the right track and retain the rights to be bullish.

Stocks like Hero Honda, as expected on Wednesday, bumped up to the levels of Rs1412 which was stated in the blog that discussed the close of Wednesday. It was also said that the stock will resume strength once it crosses Rs1420/-, which actually happened. Now the stock is quoting at Rs1480/- which is very close to Rs1476/- its important resistance level. Also, this high is lower than the previous high. So, keeping everything in mind, we still need to wait for a day or two to see what actually happens. Remember, it is better to lose some gains rather than losing capital.

In the stock Aban Offshore, there is a mistake that I would like to correct here. The correct level to watch out for is Rs1196/- and not Rs1146/- and we shall take Rs1200/- as an approximate level. Close above Rs1200/- will trigger a very bullish signal. But then this might take a week’s time to happen and during this time, it is quiet possible that the level of Rs1196/- be retested once and not breached decisively.

HCL Technologies
The stock managed to gain a lot of lost ground to close at Rs279/-. But a key concern is that the stock is quoting near its resistance of Rs281.75/-. So, wait to see, what happens next. Do not just jump into the stock. Wait for clear signals to take decision.

LITL is moving towards its target as stated in the blog posted on Thursday.


On the nifty chart, the short term moving average has crossed 26DMA from below. So, also there is a chance that the markets may now start gaining momentum.

There is at present no signal to buy on the stocks that I keep a watch on.

Will let all know as and when it comes.

Disclaimer:-
1) I do not trade personally in the stock market now.
2) Any loss suffered by the reader on the basis of above information provided does not hold the writer liable for it. Any decision to take a trade by the reader on the basis of information provided above is at his/her discretion

In Dilema on Thursday

Hello all!!

The market closed in the positive territory on Thursday, 20th August'09. Sensex gained 202 points to close at 15012.32 nifty managed to gain 59 points to close at 4453. There are two points of concern here. First, the market failed to hold the gains it had and second, the close is at the resistance level (on nifty 4451 and on sensex 15027).

So what should we expect now?? Well, the question is becoming tougher and tougher to answer with each passing day because even the charts suggest hardly anything and this to me denotes that even people are confused and thinking which way the market will go. In the last four days, sensex has been in a range of 14795-15027 on closing basis while nifty has been in a tight range of 4388-4451. We need to wait and watch the direction in which market breaks out. At the same time, it is pivotal for us to remain bullish that the market closes above 15180 and 15242 on sensex today (Friday, August 21).

Stocks to Avoid Avoid mid cap IT stocks at present. They are seeing pressure and strong resistance at current levels. For eg- Hexaware Technologies is in a range of 76.35 to 79.80 since last 5 days and it has also formed a bearish candlestick pattern. It is not being respected currently because the sector currently is in an uptrend. HCL Tech is another stock to be cautious about. The stock is expected to make a lower high (which is the first signal of trend reversal) and there are indicators that suggests exiting from the stock.

Avoid autos for the time being. Though Hero Honda managed to go past 1400 yesterday, that does not mean that it has regained strength. The rise in price is on the back of very thin volumes. This short spurt can go up to Rs1420/- after which the price is expected to fall. In case it is able to go past Rs1420/- decisively, that will be a positive signal for the stock in particular.

Aban Offshore
The stock is looking good on the charts and a performer in the market even today. Close above Rs1146/- decisively with increased volumes, will trigger a buy signal. Though the stock closed at Rs1140/- on Thursday, very close to resistance, the positive point is that the range has become very narrow. So breakout on either side can trigger a trade signal and will help providing a direction to the market.

Not only with Aban or mid cap IT or any stock in particular, but there is a range developing on almost all the stocks. On many stocks, the range has become very tight and there are indicators that suggest breakouts may happen very soon.

Ideas on the stocks discussed yesterday remain the same. Only exception is LITL, where we need to be cautiously bullish as the market forces will also affect the stock price as even yesterday, the stock lost grounds after showing strength when the market was range bound. However, the target and the stop loss remain intact.

Disclaimer:-
1) I do not trade personally in the stock market now.
2) Any loss suffered by the reader on the basis of above information provided does not hold the writer liable for it. Any decision to take a trade by the reader on the basis of information provided above is at his/her discretion

Stock Ideas after 19th August close

Hello everyone!!

In my blogs, I will write about stock ideas on daily basis.

After the close of 19th August 2009, these are some stock ideas that I would like to share with all.

GMR Infra
The stock closed at Rs128.25/- on Wednesday, August 19 2009.
The stock is in a downtrend and is under performing the Indian bourses. The stock is facing huge selling pressure at every rally. The immediate support on the chart is Rs 128/-. Once this support is taken out, fresh shorts can be initiated with a target of Rs119/-. In case the stock is able to go past Rs133/- on 20th or 21st august, there is a possibility of the stock testing and even breaking the levels of Rs137/-, which is a key resistance for the stock as of now. But the overall scenario for the stock remains bearish. Only the market force can drag it upward.

Hero Honda
Even this stock is under performing the markets now. 1356 is the immediate support to watch out for while 1400 is the current resistance. At present, it seems the stock may retest the levels of Rs1400/- again, but that should not be considered a buying opportunity. Always remember, it is better to lose some gains rather than losing a large part of the capital. If the support of Rs1356/- is broken, the ray of hope is the uptrend line which is offering support at Rs 1304/- as on 19th august,2009.


Stocks that are performing in the market.
The buyers should be looking at stocks like Apollo Tyres, Binani Cement, Lanco Infrastructure Ltd. (LITL) to buy and hold. All the stocks are either forming or have just broke out of price patterns.

LITL
The stock closed at Rs398.60/- on wednesday. The stock there has given a buy signal with a stop loss below 394/- and a target of Rs415/-(risk to reward ratio being 3.5times). The next target on the chart is Rs443/-. The stock is for traders who trade daily.

Binani Cement
The strength of the stock is seen on weekly charts. The close above Rs62/- on weekly basis with increased volumes can take the stock to Rs95/-. The weekly stop loss would be Rs58/-. A stock that may offer a very high risk to reward ratio. The stock is for people with an outlook of 6-7 months.

Apollo Tyres
The stock has been outperforming the markets so far. The pattern development on the daily charts is a neutral pattern, which means the stock can give a breakout in either direction. Since, we are in an uptrend, we must assume that the breakout will happen in the direction of the trend. Therefore, a close above Rs41.5/- with increased volumes generate a buy signal. (To be on the safer side, a close below Rs39.5/- suggests going short).


Other than this, stocks like BHEL, GVKPIL are trading in a range.
While BHEL is in a broad range of Rs1958/- to Rs2350/-, GVKPIL is in a narrow range of Rs45/- to Rs47.20/-. Though there are people who may want to trade these ranges, but it is advisable to take position only after the range is broken on either side.


That's all for today. Will come up with more ideas tomorrow. In case the reader has any stock specific querry, please feel free to ask. In case, you have suggestions, they are most welcome.


Disclaimer:-
1) I do not trade personally in the stock market now.
2) Any loss suffered by the reader on the basis of above information provided does not hold the writer liable for it. Any decision to take a trade by the reader on the basis of information provided above is at his/her discretion.